{
  "schema_version": "2.0",
  "split_unit": "doi",
  "leakage_control": "All states from one paper are held out together; candidate selection uses DOI-only inner folds.",
  "feature_policy": "Critical alloy, process, test-rate and orientation variables are included; one-sided missing numeric values incur a distance penalty.",
  "baseline_comparison": "kNN, fold-training mean, ridge, bounded ridge, shallow tree and a nested selector are scored on identical DOI-held-out records; all preprocessing and model choice use training DOI only.",
  "deployment_rule": "Exploratory deployment requires every metric, distance and prospective-public-batch check; engineering deployment additionally requires independent experimental validation.",
  "minimum_calibration_predictions": 5,
  "minimum_held_out_sources": 3,
  "calibrated_groups": [
    "austenitic|aged|ys_mpa",
    "austenitic|aged|elongation_pct",
    "austenitic|cold_roll_aged|ys_mpa",
    "austenitic|cold_roll_aged|uts_mpa",
    "austenitic|cold_roll_aged|elongation_pct",
    "austenitic|solution|ys_mpa",
    "austenitic|solution|uts_mpa",
    "austenitic|solution|elongation_pct",
    "austenitic_b2|cold_roll_anneal|ys_mpa",
    "austenitic_b2|cold_roll_anneal|uts_mpa",
    "austenitic_b2|cold_roll_anneal|elongation_pct"
  ],
  "deployment_policy": {
    "minimum_sources": 8,
    "minimum_predictions": 20,
    "minimum_r2": 0.0,
    "minimum_r2_confidence_lower": 0.0,
    "minimum_mae_improvement_vs_mean": 0.1,
    "minimum_interval_coverage": 0.8,
    "maximum_relative_interval_half_width": {
      "ys_mpa": 0.3,
      "uts_mpa": 0.25,
      "elongation_pct": 0.5
    },
    "maximum_far_distance_ratio": 0.1,
    "requires_prospective_public_batch": true
  },
  "prospective_public_batch": {
    "passed": false,
    "reason": "The existing public batch was retrospective and not preregistered for the current model version."
  },
  "independent_experimental_validation": {
    "passed": false,
    "reason": "No independent furnace-batch or component test dataset is available."
  },
  "exploratory_ready_groups": [],
  "engineering_ready_groups": [],
  "deployment_ready_groups": [],
  "quality_floor": "At least 8 DOI / 20 predictions, positive R2 and bootstrap lower bound, >=10% MAE improvement, acceptable interval coverage/width and <=10% far-distance cases.",
  "groups": {
    "austenitic|aged|ys_mpa": {
      "family": "austenitic",
      "process_family": "aged",
      "target": "ys_mpa",
      "rows": 6,
      "sources": 3,
      "validation_scheme": "leave-one-DOI-out",
      "predictions": 6,
      "held_out_sources": 3,
      "mae": 241.428,
      "rmse": 291.403,
      "r2": -1.254,
      "conformal_q90": 450.819,
      "empirical_coverage_at_q90": 1.0,
      "baselines": {
        "training_mean": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 285.75,
          "rmse": 307.601,
          "r2": -1.511
        }
      },
      "candidate_models": {
        "source_balanced_knn": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 241.428,
          "rmse": 291.403,
          "r2": -1.254
        },
        "linear_ridge": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 297.945,
          "rmse": 331.8,
          "r2": -1.922
        },
        "bounded_ridge": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 297.945,
          "rmse": 331.8,
          "r2": -1.922
        },
        "shallow_tree": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 315.833,
          "rmse": 338.406,
          "r2": -2.039
        },
        "nested_selector": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 241.428,
          "rmse": 291.403,
          "r2": -1.254
        }
      },
      "best_candidate_model": "source_balanced_knn",
      "nested_model_choices": {
        "source_balanced_knn": 6
      },
      "calibration_ready": true,
      "calibration_reason": "DOI-grouped residual set meets the minimum 5 states / 3 held-out sources.",
      "mae_improvement_vs_mean": 0.155,
      "r2_confidence_lower_95": -21.552,
      "interval_width": 901.638,
      "relative_interval_half_width": 0.728,
      "far_distance_ratio": 0.0,
      "worst_held_out_doi": {
        "doi": "10.3389/fmats.2021.680776",
        "mae": 395.934,
        "predictions": 3
      },
      "deployment_checks": [
        {
          "key": "sources",
          "label": "独立 DOI",
          "current": 3,
          "required": 8,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "predictions",
          "label": "留出预测数",
          "current": 6,
          "required": 20,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2",
          "label": "跨 DOI R²",
          "current": -1.254,
          "required": "> 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2_lower",
          "label": "R² 95% 下界",
          "current": -21.552,
          "required": ">= 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "baseline_improvement",
          "label": "相对均值基线改善",
          "current": 0.155,
          "required": ">= 10%",
          "pass": true
        },
        {
          "key": "coverage",
          "label": "q90 经验覆盖率",
          "current": 1.0,
          "required": ">= 80%",
          "pass": true
        },
        {
          "key": "interval_width",
          "label": "相对区间半宽",
          "current": 0.728,
          "required": "<= 30%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "far_distance",
          "label": "远距离样本比例",
          "current": 0.0,
          "required": "<= 10%",
          "pass": true
        },
        {
          "key": "public_batch",
          "label": "前瞻冻结公开批次",
          "current": false,
          "required": true,
          "pass": false
        }
      ],
      "metric_ready": false,
      "exploratory_ready": false,
      "engineering_ready": false,
      "deployment_ready": false,
      "data_recommendation": "优先补充 5 个新 DOI：同材料族、同工艺族，完整报告 ys_mpa、成分、工艺顺序和测试条件。",
      "deployment_reason": "未通过：独立 DOI、留出预测数、跨 DOI R²、R² 95% 下界、相对区间半宽、前瞻冻结公开批次。"
    },
    "austenitic|aged|uts_mpa": {
      "family": "austenitic",
      "process_family": "aged",
      "target": "uts_mpa",
      "rows": 4,
      "sources": 2,
      "validation_scheme": "leave-one-DOI-out",
      "predictions": 0,
      "held_out_sources": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "r2": null,
      "conformal_q90": null,
      "empirical_coverage_at_q90": null,
      "baselines": null,
      "candidate_models": null,
      "best_candidate_model": null,
      "nested_model_choices": {},
      "calibration_ready": false,
      "calibration_reason": "Fewer than 5 held-out states or 3 independent held-out DOI sources.",
      "mae_improvement_vs_mean": null,
      "r2_confidence_lower_95": null,
      "interval_width": null,
      "relative_interval_half_width": null,
      "far_distance_ratio": null,
      "worst_held_out_doi": null,
      "deployment_checks": [
        {
          "key": "sources",
          "label": "独立 DOI",
          "current": 2,
          "required": 8,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "predictions",
          "label": "留出预测数",
          "current": 0,
          "required": 20,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2",
          "label": "跨 DOI R²",
          "current": null,
          "required": "> 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2_lower",
          "label": "R² 95% 下界",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "baseline_improvement",
          "label": "相对均值基线改善",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "coverage",
          "label": "q90 经验覆盖率",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 80%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "interval_width",
          "label": "相对区间半宽",
          "current": null,
          "required": "<= 25%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "far_distance",
          "label": "远距离样本比例",
          "current": null,
          "required": "<= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "public_batch",
          "label": "前瞻冻结公开批次",
          "current": false,
          "required": true,
          "pass": false
        }
      ],
      "metric_ready": false,
      "exploratory_ready": false,
      "engineering_ready": false,
      "deployment_ready": false,
      "data_recommendation": "优先补充 6 个新 DOI：同材料族、同工艺族，完整报告 uts_mpa、成分、工艺顺序和测试条件。",
      "deployment_reason": "未通过：独立 DOI、留出预测数、跨 DOI R²、R² 95% 下界、相对均值基线改善、q90 经验覆盖率、相对区间半宽、远距离样本比例、前瞻冻结公开批次。"
    },
    "austenitic|aged|elongation_pct": {
      "family": "austenitic",
      "process_family": "aged",
      "target": "elongation_pct",
      "rows": 6,
      "sources": 3,
      "validation_scheme": "leave-one-DOI-out",
      "predictions": 6,
      "held_out_sources": 3,
      "mae": 15.02,
      "rmse": 15.688,
      "r2": -2.145,
      "conformal_q90": 19.964,
      "empirical_coverage_at_q90": 1.0,
      "baselines": {
        "training_mean": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 12.681,
          "rmse": 14.558,
          "r2": -1.708
        }
      },
      "candidate_models": {
        "source_balanced_knn": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 15.02,
          "rmse": 15.688,
          "r2": -2.145
        },
        "linear_ridge": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 23.196,
          "rmse": 23.839,
          "r2": -6.261
        },
        "bounded_ridge": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 23.196,
          "rmse": 23.839,
          "r2": -6.261
        },
        "shallow_tree": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 13.467,
          "rmse": 15.704,
          "r2": -2.151
        },
        "nested_selector": {
          "predictions": 6,
          "held_out_sources": 3,
          "mae": 15.02,
          "rmse": 15.688,
          "r2": -2.145
        }
      },
      "best_candidate_model": "shallow_tree",
      "nested_model_choices": {
        "source_balanced_knn": 6
      },
      "calibration_ready": true,
      "calibration_reason": "DOI-grouped residual set meets the minimum 5 states / 3 held-out sources.",
      "mae_improvement_vs_mean": -0.184,
      "r2_confidence_lower_95": -78.593,
      "interval_width": 39.928,
      "relative_interval_half_width": 0.452,
      "far_distance_ratio": 0.0,
      "worst_held_out_doi": {
        "doi": "10.3389/fmats.2021.680776",
        "mae": 18.178,
        "predictions": 3
      },
      "deployment_checks": [
        {
          "key": "sources",
          "label": "独立 DOI",
          "current": 3,
          "required": 8,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "predictions",
          "label": "留出预测数",
          "current": 6,
          "required": 20,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2",
          "label": "跨 DOI R²",
          "current": -2.145,
          "required": "> 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2_lower",
          "label": "R² 95% 下界",
          "current": -78.593,
          "required": ">= 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "baseline_improvement",
          "label": "相对均值基线改善",
          "current": -0.184,
          "required": ">= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "coverage",
          "label": "q90 经验覆盖率",
          "current": 1.0,
          "required": ">= 80%",
          "pass": true
        },
        {
          "key": "interval_width",
          "label": "相对区间半宽",
          "current": 0.452,
          "required": "<= 50%",
          "pass": true
        },
        {
          "key": "far_distance",
          "label": "远距离样本比例",
          "current": 0.0,
          "required": "<= 10%",
          "pass": true
        },
        {
          "key": "public_batch",
          "label": "前瞻冻结公开批次",
          "current": false,
          "required": true,
          "pass": false
        }
      ],
      "metric_ready": false,
      "exploratory_ready": false,
      "engineering_ready": false,
      "deployment_ready": false,
      "data_recommendation": "优先补充 5 个新 DOI：同材料族、同工艺族，完整报告 elongation_pct、成分、工艺顺序和测试条件。",
      "deployment_reason": "未通过：独立 DOI、留出预测数、跨 DOI R²、R² 95% 下界、相对均值基线改善、前瞻冻结公开批次。"
    },
    "austenitic|annealed|ys_mpa": {
      "family": "austenitic",
      "process_family": "annealed",
      "target": "ys_mpa",
      "rows": 3,
      "sources": 1,
      "validation_scheme": "leave-one-DOI-out",
      "predictions": 0,
      "held_out_sources": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "r2": null,
      "conformal_q90": null,
      "empirical_coverage_at_q90": null,
      "baselines": null,
      "candidate_models": null,
      "best_candidate_model": null,
      "nested_model_choices": {},
      "calibration_ready": false,
      "calibration_reason": "Fewer than 5 held-out states or 3 independent held-out DOI sources.",
      "mae_improvement_vs_mean": null,
      "r2_confidence_lower_95": null,
      "interval_width": null,
      "relative_interval_half_width": null,
      "far_distance_ratio": null,
      "worst_held_out_doi": null,
      "deployment_checks": [
        {
          "key": "sources",
          "label": "独立 DOI",
          "current": 1,
          "required": 8,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "predictions",
          "label": "留出预测数",
          "current": 0,
          "required": 20,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2",
          "label": "跨 DOI R²",
          "current": null,
          "required": "> 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2_lower",
          "label": "R² 95% 下界",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "baseline_improvement",
          "label": "相对均值基线改善",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "coverage",
          "label": "q90 经验覆盖率",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 80%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "interval_width",
          "label": "相对区间半宽",
          "current": null,
          "required": "<= 30%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "far_distance",
          "label": "远距离样本比例",
          "current": null,
          "required": "<= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "public_batch",
          "label": "前瞻冻结公开批次",
          "current": false,
          "required": true,
          "pass": false
        }
      ],
      "metric_ready": false,
      "exploratory_ready": false,
      "engineering_ready": false,
      "deployment_ready": false,
      "data_recommendation": "优先补充 7 个新 DOI：同材料族、同工艺族，完整报告 ys_mpa、成分、工艺顺序和测试条件。",
      "deployment_reason": "未通过：独立 DOI、留出预测数、跨 DOI R²、R² 95% 下界、相对均值基线改善、q90 经验覆盖率、相对区间半宽、远距离样本比例、前瞻冻结公开批次。"
    },
    "austenitic|annealed|uts_mpa": {
      "family": "austenitic",
      "process_family": "annealed",
      "target": "uts_mpa",
      "rows": 3,
      "sources": 1,
      "validation_scheme": "leave-one-DOI-out",
      "predictions": 0,
      "held_out_sources": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "r2": null,
      "conformal_q90": null,
      "empirical_coverage_at_q90": null,
      "baselines": null,
      "candidate_models": null,
      "best_candidate_model": null,
      "nested_model_choices": {},
      "calibration_ready": false,
      "calibration_reason": "Fewer than 5 held-out states or 3 independent held-out DOI sources.",
      "mae_improvement_vs_mean": null,
      "r2_confidence_lower_95": null,
      "interval_width": null,
      "relative_interval_half_width": null,
      "far_distance_ratio": null,
      "worst_held_out_doi": null,
      "deployment_checks": [
        {
          "key": "sources",
          "label": "独立 DOI",
          "current": 1,
          "required": 8,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "predictions",
          "label": "留出预测数",
          "current": 0,
          "required": 20,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2",
          "label": "跨 DOI R²",
          "current": null,
          "required": "> 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2_lower",
          "label": "R² 95% 下界",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "baseline_improvement",
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          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "coverage",
          "label": "q90 经验覆盖率",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 80%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "interval_width",
          "label": "相对区间半宽",
          "current": null,
          "required": "<= 25%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "far_distance",
          "label": "远距离样本比例",
          "current": null,
          "required": "<= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "public_batch",
          "label": "前瞻冻结公开批次",
          "current": false,
          "required": true,
          "pass": false
        }
      ],
      "metric_ready": false,
      "exploratory_ready": false,
      "engineering_ready": false,
      "deployment_ready": false,
      "data_recommendation": "优先补充 7 个新 DOI：同材料族、同工艺族，完整报告 uts_mpa、成分、工艺顺序和测试条件。",
      "deployment_reason": "未通过：独立 DOI、留出预测数、跨 DOI R²、R² 95% 下界、相对均值基线改善、q90 经验覆盖率、相对区间半宽、远距离样本比例、前瞻冻结公开批次。"
    },
    "austenitic|annealed|elongation_pct": {
      "family": "austenitic",
      "process_family": "annealed",
      "target": "elongation_pct",
      "rows": 3,
      "sources": 1,
      "validation_scheme": "leave-one-DOI-out",
      "predictions": 0,
      "held_out_sources": 0,
      "mae": null,
      "rmse": null,
      "r2": null,
      "conformal_q90": null,
      "empirical_coverage_at_q90": null,
      "baselines": null,
      "candidate_models": null,
      "best_candidate_model": null,
      "nested_model_choices": {},
      "calibration_ready": false,
      "calibration_reason": "Fewer than 5 held-out states or 3 independent held-out DOI sources.",
      "mae_improvement_vs_mean": null,
      "r2_confidence_lower_95": null,
      "interval_width": null,
      "relative_interval_half_width": null,
      "far_distance_ratio": null,
      "worst_held_out_doi": null,
      "deployment_checks": [
        {
          "key": "sources",
          "label": "独立 DOI",
          "current": 1,
          "required": 8,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "predictions",
          "label": "留出预测数",
          "current": 0,
          "required": 20,
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2",
          "label": "跨 DOI R²",
          "current": null,
          "required": "> 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "r2_lower",
          "label": "R² 95% 下界",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 0",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "baseline_improvement",
          "label": "相对均值基线改善",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "coverage",
          "label": "q90 经验覆盖率",
          "current": null,
          "required": ">= 80%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "interval_width",
          "label": "相对区间半宽",
          "current": null,
          "required": "<= 50%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "far_distance",
          "label": "远距离样本比例",
          "current": null,
          "required": "<= 10%",
          "pass": false
        },
        {
          "key": "public_batch",
          "label": "前瞻冻结公开批次",
          "current": false,
          "required": true,
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}